Thursday, August 13, 2009

A Whacky Few Days

A few days ago The Bernanke Files hypothesized that some important economic relationships were changing. For example, a few months ago the yields on T-Bonds went up when the market went up. This could be seen as a "flight to safety" relationship because when the markets went down investors became fearful and bought bonds.

But The Bernanke Files is hypothesizing that the motives behind movements will change as investors are driven less by fear and more by other market indicators. This change affects oil, the Dow, bonds, individual stocks and gold.

Today gives us empirical evidence that this trend may be swaying in the direction that The Bernanke Files has argued it will be going: the markets went up, but the interest rate WENT DOWN. This is opposite of what you would have expected a few months ago and supports The Bernanke Files hypothesis.

No comments:

Post a Comment